Duncan Robinson
Miami Heat

Player Facts

Height: 6'7"
Weight: 215lbs.

Wingspan: 7'1"

Date of Birth: Apr. 22, 1994
College Experience: Williams College [D III] (1 year), Michigan (3 years)

Selections

All Star: 0
All-NBA: 0
All-Defensive: 0

Player Grades

Speed/Explosiveness: 7
Physical Strength: 4
Positional Size: 9
Positional Wingspan: 9
Paint Scoring: 6
Midrange Scoring: 6
Three-Point Scoring: 10
Dribbling: 5
Passing: 5
Perimeter Defense: 5
Interior Defense: 4
Rebounding: 4

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JUMP TO SECTION

> Intro

> Three-Point Abundance

> Playing Off His Teammates

> Duncan-Bam Action

> Cutting as a Counter

> Handoff Statistical Savant

> Scoring in a Couple Other Ways

> Team Defender

> Offensive Problem Areas

> Struggling to Contain

> Beacon Bacon

>Link to Player Contract & Salary Info

*All short clips courtesy of NF Highlights & Smart Highlights (YouTube),

*All statistical data courtesy of NBA Advanced Stats

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STRENGTHS

Intro

Duncan Robinson is a three-point specialist in the purest sense. His superb stroke is seen whether shooting off movement, spotting up, or using a handoff. He has outstanding footwork here, easily and smoothly rising up at a legit-6'7" with long arms.

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Three-Point Abundance

In taking a look at his splits, it's insane how many of his buckets come from deep. He's such a knockdown shooter, however, that he remains an efficient and effective offensive player on the whole.

During 2019-2020 82.4% of his points were derived from triples, finishing fourth leaguewide in both 3pt percentage and makes. 2021-2022 had him clearing the 80% mark once again.

There are multiple key points to touch on in breaking down his form. First of all, his release is absurdly quick. Duncan's shot is predicated on perfect energy transfer and impeccable balance. A catch-and-shoot king, he is skilled enough to eliminate the dip when defenders are tighter to him.

He moves with tons of purpose without the ball in his hands. Just like a smart big man does his work early via a deep seal, Duncan's version of this is sprinting all-out on his routes. The swingman is a willing off-ball screener as well which can cause micro-breakdowns of the defense with all that gravity he commands.

Robinson's ability to decelerate into the catch and shortly after that the jumper itself is remarkable. He can also backpedal into a three as the defense is scrambling and he determinedly tries to get his feet behind the line.

Playing Off His Teammates

The thing that fuels Robinson's sniping is his active and smart off-ball movement. He demands that his defender stay fully locked in or else he'll slide along the arc to foster a better passing angle. Off penetration, offensive rebounds, and broken plays, Duncan remains mindful of the power he wields with his motion.

From Jimmy Butler to Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry, Robinson has made his teammates appreciate his knockdown shooting. He makes himself a good, clean target for kick-outs, and his shot prep is sharp.

The undrafted sharpshooter hit 46% of his catch-and-shoot threes in 2019-2020 (41.7% the next year), in the 91st percentile for spot-up scoring. His 9.5 catch-and-shoot points per night that season trailed only Davis Bertans.

The Michigan product requires instantaneous defensive attention on the break. In transition and semi-transition chances he flares out to the wing or deep corner. He shot 41.8% on corner three-balls and remained reliable from above-the-break in his 2021-2022 campaign.

Duncan-Bam Action

He and Bam Adebayo work their magic within the confines of their dynamic two-man game. This handoff-heavy pairing is a headache to deal with from a defensive perspective. Duncan's rapid, accurate shooting stroke is a perfect fit alongside Bam's playmaking feel.

There are various wrinkles within the Robinson-Adebayo duo. The action is made so dangerous by both players being able to read defenders and make wise decisions in real-time.

Duncan will slam on the brakes and swiftly square his shoulders to the rim for a bomb when his man trails. His tightness as he corrals the basketball from his teammate's hands proves useful here too. The three-point marksman is comfortable taking a dribble and/or big gather step to eke out even more space to fire away.

If he sees that he's got nothing on the initial receival, Duncan pitches it back to Bam or whomever for a relocation. This is a valuable counter in his arsenal that he employs when these actions are well-defended. Juking up then cutting backdoor is another weapon. The rampant relocating doesn't end here for Robinson, a player who's in perpetual motion off-ball à la Klay Thompson.

Cutting as a Counter

Conversely, he'll carry his curl into a cut, with a teammate finding him at the hoop if they catch Duncan's man napping for even a moment. The latter development contributes greatly to Robinson being such a productive cutter. 2019-2020 saw him place in the 99th percentile scoring on his basket cuts (95th percentile in 2020-2021).

Handoff Statistical Savant

Duncan is simply elite at the things he does do on the floor. In addition to his backdoor cuts that are often fed by Bam, his impact as a handoff receiver, in general, is profound.

In 2019-2020 he scored a preposterous 1.38 points per possession on handoffs which put him in the 97th percentile. His league-best 252 points here was far and away the highest total, with trailers Bradley Beal, Dillon Brooks, Jamal Murray, and Devin Booker way behind. 2021-2022 saw him again pace the Association with his DHO-point total.

Scoring in a Couple Other Ways

Besides the killer catch-and-shooting, Duncan is a capable, if infrequent, pull-up shooter. He took 144 of them in 2021-2022 and canned 65 (45.1%). These were largely the result of defensive miscommunications as Duncan was handling within pistol actions and things of that nature.

He has improved at putting the ball on the floor to keep defenders honest. Robinson isn't going to give you many dribble drives but can competently elude the closeout and make a play. Despite only shooting 61 layups in 2021-2022 he made 39 of them, using his size to help him finish at a high clip.

Team Defender

Defensively, he has his limitations but understands the schemes well. Duncan is alert, disciplined with his defensive footwork, and is in the right place more often than not. At 6'7", he uses his size well. But at only 215lbs., he's limited to checking mostly guards.

In continuing with his contributions as a team defender, he stays active even when stuck onto a shooter. For example, he'll stick his long arm in as a helper against someone driving (unofficial 7'1" wingspan). Moreover, he drew 11 charges in 2021-2022 which helped him squeeze out some more defensive value.

WEAKNESSES

Offensive Problem Areas

For all of his shooting glory, Robinson has some standout weaknesses on offense. His handle is mediocre, often requiring teammates to manufacture shots/advantages for him.

Also, while he intentionally avoids the midrange since he's such a good three-point shooter, he should shoot more at the rim. This would also help boost what is a painfully low free throw rate. Robinson is deadly at the stripe but rarely gets there.

Duncan Robinson's playmaking, individual shot creation, and pick-and-roll initiation are all lacking. These are not things that plague him or the team too much given his defined role offensively. Even still, enhanced skill levels in these three areas would benefit the 6'7" Duncan and his squad.

Struggling to Contain

Defensively, Duncan is usually hidden on a shooter. He lacks the foot speed or agility to contend with explosive perimeter threats. Additionally, his slight 215-pound build doesn't allow for great defense on similar-height forwards. He can also foul quite frequently which slashes his already-streaky floor time.

Robinson is relegated to being in a semi-permanent off-ball role as a defender. This brings his defensive ceiling way down, and consequently his two-way potential. He's also not much of a rebounding contributor even while standing at 6'7".

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bacon
Beacon Bacon

After beginning his college basketball career at a Division III school, Duncan transferred to Michigan where he put in three seasons under John Beilein